WaterNet is our major project with Paul Houser's team of investigators under this NASA sponsored Solutions Network - WaterNet: The NASA Water Cycle Solutions Network, whose goal is to improve and optimize the sustained ability of water cycle researchers, stakeholders, organizations and networks to interact, identify, harness, and extend NASA research results to augment decision support tools and meet national needs.

Hydrometdss is focusing on networking with hydrometeorological end-users in the water resources management arena in the United States and Europe. One key effort is our demonstration project working with the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), Central Valley Project of US Bureau of Reclamation and California Department of Water Resources, and US Army Corps of Engineers in collaboration with the Physical Sciences Division of the Environmental Science Research Laboratory of NOAA. Dr. Rob Hartman, Hydrologist-in-Charge, CNRFC is working with our WaterNet team to develop a plan for the demonstration project.

The Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT) applied research program of PSD and its many collaborators represents a unique means of integrating remote sensing data, surface observations and land surface and meteorological forecast models into the river forecasting systems of the CNRFC. Dr. Timothy Schwartz's team at the Physical Sciences Division, ESRL is working with Dr. Hartman and is collaborating with a number of other groups within NOAA, NASA, USGS, NRCS, and CDWR to test new technologies and integrate them into the operational forecasting procedures at the CNRFC and the local Weather Forecast Office in Sacramento, CA. HMT’s charter to integrate the emerging research into end-user decision-making provides an ideal framework for our WaterNet demonstration project efforts. We are developing the plan for this networking and demonstration with Drs. Schneider and Hartman.

April 2008 - An invitation to Join our Community of Practice

WaterNet Theme for an ESF-COST Proposal

Title: Improved Analyses and Forecasts of Snowpack and Runoff and Drought by High Resolution Data Assimilation, Atmospheric and Land Surface Models in the Alps of Slovenia and Austria and Southeastern Europe

Lead Investigators: Mitja Brilly¹, Gregor Gregoric², Janez Polajnar², Mark Zagar², Helmut Knoblauch³, Michael Staudinger⁴, Paul Houser⁵ and Dave Matthews⁶

¹ Faculty for Civil and Geodetic Engineering, Ljubljana, Slovenia

² Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia

³ Institute of hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technical University of Graz, Austria

⁴ Zentralanstalt fur Meteorologie UND Geodynamik (ZAMG), Salzburg, Austria

5 Center for Research on the Environment and Water, IGES, George Mason University, Virginia, USA

⁶ Hydromet DSS, LLC Silverthorne, CO USA 80498-1848

970 262-6725 This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

Summary

This theme fits into the ESF Research Area of “Life, Earth and Environmental Sciences”. Slovenia, Austria and many regions of SE Europe have rugged topography where terrain, moisture flux from the Mediterranean and Atlantic Oceans and evolving land-use patterns exert major influences on the distribution of precipitation and water. These complex processes provide precipitation on the windward slopes of mountain ranges in complex patterns that are difficult to measure and predict. Large scale synoptic storms combine with mesoscale local mountain air flows to produce heavy windward precipitation patterns, complex mountain-valley precipitation events and “rain shadow” effects on the lee sides of mountain ranges that are important to flood control, water resource, energy and agriculture management. The WaterNet project is designed to bring multidisciplinary researchers and decision-makers together to improve water-cycle related decision-making through scientifically based decision support tools. In this ESF networking project, we seek to bring together experts in hydrological, meteorological, remote sensing (as in FORALPS, AWARE, VOLTAIRE and EFFS) research together with water, emergency, hydropower, and agricultural decision-makers. The goal is to develop a Community of Practice (COP) of scientists, engineers, managers and stake holders, who share common interests and needs under the umbrella of the Water Cycle. Please consider joining our CoP.

This effort is intended to complement the WaterNet: The NASA Water Cycle Solutions Network which focuses on NASA research by integrating related ESA, Living Planet Program, EUMetsat and other European research and decision-making. GMES, the ‘Global Monitoring for Environment and Security’ represents a concerted effort to bring data and information providers together with users, so they can better understand each other and make environmental and security-related information available to the people who need it through enhanced or new services. These goals are closely related to WaterNet’s. GMES is the European participation in the worldwide monitoring and management of our planet Earth and the European contribution to the Group on Earth Observation (GEO). The global community acts together for a synergy of all techniques of observation, detection and analysis. The Group on Earth Observations (or GEO) is coordinating international efforts to build a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). This emerging public infrastructure is interconnecting a diverse and growing array of instruments and systems for monitoring and forecasting changes in the global environment. This “system of systems” supports policymakers, resource managers, science researchers and many other experts and decision-makers. Click here to learn more about GEOSS. You can find more details on how GEO functions on the "About GEO pages" and in the GEO Information Kit. The GEOPortal will make it easier to integrate diverse data sets, identify relevant data and portals of contributing systems, and access models and other decision-support tools.

Hydrological services will benefit from better forecasting models. Water experts are

collaborating through GEO (EU, US…) to define the data and information infrastructure they will need forimproving water-cycle forecasting. This emerging system will start by establishing global prediction models, which will incorporate moisture flux from the air-sea interface in addition to data from the world’s hydrological and meteorological services. It will then develop national and regional models and finally river-basin or catchment–level models. These models will eventually become interoperable, creating a “system of systems” that will facilitate the global exchange of observation data and forecasting information. The resulting ability of water-resource managers to access new and more powerful decision-support tools will completely change the way they do their jobs. Within the GEO GEOSS umbrella work at the WMO in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) also complements WaterNet in areas ranging from the Cryosphere to Floods and Droughts.

Applications

For example, the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (EARS) employs a suite of forecasting tools including MIKE Floodwatch (Ammentorp et al 1998; Jorgenson et al 2001) that extrapolate precipitation over watersheds and predict stream flow. This modeling system monitors water surface elevations and water levels with respect to bank full discharge and flood conditions. This system is run jointly with the EARS and ZAMG agencies in Slovenia and Austria on the Drava and Mura Rivers. In this region it is difficult to extrapolate freezing level which is a critical determinant of frozen precipitation accumulating as snow pack in the mountains from liquid precipitation, which runs off immediately. The zero degree isotherm and freezing level is dependent upon the unique synoptic conditions of the individual storm systems that require high resolution models to predict the evolution of temperature and precipitation patterns that impact water supplies.

Slovenia and Austria need better high resolution hydrologic forecasts of stream flow and related snow pack evolution and snow water equivalent (SWE) spatial distributions, and distributions of soil moisture, vegetation vitality, and other measures of water supply and moisture conditions.

Products from the Hydrologic Sciences Branch, GSFC, NASA, Land Information System (LIS) and Land Surface Model (LSM), the SPoRT and CREW links to NASA LSMs may provide a solution for improved prediction of water supplies and stream flow, and drought conditions in the major river basins serviced by the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (EARS) and its Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE). The EARS has the responsibility of issuing flood alerts, along with issuing seasonal water supply forecasts and snowmelt runoff forecasts. DMCSEE is a cooperative WMO effort of 11 southeastern European countries from Slovenia to Turkey to develop drought management capabilities for the region.

WRF has been successfully deployed by the US Air Force Weather Agency to meet the terrain extremes found in Afghanistan. WRF will be complicated by the NASA research results of data assimilation incorporating the higher resolution MODIS data fields, as already developed by the NASA SPoRT program Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS), and the GSFC Land Information System (LIS) Land Surface Model coupling software and the community NOAH-LSM. Support will continue to be provided by use of VIIRS and IGES. The ESF networking could potentially improve EARS, ZAMG and other EU operational forecasts, thus reducing losses due to floods and increase revenues from hydropower plants and additional water supplies for potable water and irrigation, thus impacting municipal water supplies and agricultural production.

Drought in recent years has become a major problem for many countries of southeastern Europe, hence the formation of DMCSEE, the Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe under the guidance of the World Meteorological Organization and UNESCO. The European Commission has developed an extensive climate and crop vitality analysis and prediction system that uses satellite, and surface observations with numerical models to assess the vitality of various crops and vegetation in the region. This ESF networking effort proposes to work with the EU scientific community in testing, evaluating, and applying potential benefits from NASA and ESA derived research products. Results from Land Surface Models would be used by DMCSEE decision-makers to assess the intensity, area extent, and impacts of drought.

Group on Earth Observations (GEO) – NASA linkages

The following links provide examples of the types of research products that may be of direct value to decision-makers. This link between the GEOS global analyses and the WRF models could allow for many useful regional modeling applications as demonstrated by the Earth System Modeling Framework - ESMF. The ESMF provides a comprehensive means of integrating various models to provide a comprehensive high-performance flexible modeling system and regional and local-scale data assimilation and modeling. For example, a series of WRF simulations will be conducted to test the sensitivity of the initial and boundary conditions derived from NCEP, ECMWF, and GEOS on precipitation over different geographic locations (GSFC Mesoscale Modeling and Dynamics Group at:

atmospheres.gsfc.nasa.gov/cloud_modeling/models_coupledWRF-GCE-LIS.html

WRF-predicted (frozen and liquid) precipitation fields can be compared with other-predicted values, with both compared with measured values, particularly given the extensively instrumented sites like the mountain observatory at Kredarica at 2500 m msl.

The NASA sponsored program Short-term Prediction Research and Transition center (SPoRT) has already demonstrated that use of higher resolution MODIS coastal ocean sea surface temperature (SST) fields increases the spatial resolution and improves the forecast fields generated within WRF. Indeed, William Lapenta of SPoRT is already working with the GSFC HSB to develop the coupled LIS-WRF (Case, Lacasse, Santanello, Lapenta, and Peters-Lidard 2007). Motivated by the positive results found using MODIS data to initialize sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models [LaCasse et al. (2007)], this project attempts to improve the specification of the lower boundary in ERA-40 re-analysis data and regional NWP models over land areas. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS) software is being configured to optimize land and soil-state variables for initializing high-resolution regional simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for a case study period from May 2004.

Candidate Solution

The hypothesis for a related NASA Candidate Solution Report project asks whether short-term mesoscale numerical forecasts of sensible heat and moisture fluxes can be improved by using optimally-tuned, high-resolution atmospheric models and land surface and soil fields. Therefore, the primary goal is to investigate and evaluate the potential benefits of high-resolution land surface and soil data derived from NASA and ESA systems and models for regional short-term numerical guidance (0-24 hours) using the Goddard Space Flight Center LIS software coupled to the Advanced Research WRF model for improving land/soil states. SPoRT is examining a one-month period of relatively benign weather to quantify possible increased skill of WRF numerical simulations due to optimized land/soil properties. We propose that SPoRT and HSB-LIS also study periods of extreme events like the Zelesniki Flood, and the 2007 drought over SE Europe to determine how robust the model is in extreme situations. Real-time modeling from the CREW web server will be examined to determine what NASA products are most useful. Examples of real-time Soil Moisture, Surface Runoff, 6-hour Precipitation, evaporation-precipitation (mm/day), and snow water equivalent (SWE) fields show the potential value of GLDAS products for Europe. These coarse resolution products need to be improved through high resolution models to be of direct value to decision-makers.

The NASA methodology involves running the NOAH LSM within LIS in an offline mode (i.e. not coupled to WRF) to provide land/soil initialization data on the WRF grid. Twenty-four hour simulations of the standard WRF are then compared to coupled LIS/WRF experiments during September 2007 over Slovenia and Southeastern Europe. All simulations will be run on a high-resolution domain with 3-km horizontal grid spacing. The impacts will be then examined on predicted atmospheric variables, focusing on low levels in the atmosphere and land surface model variables. Finally, verification statistics will be compiled at surface observation locations to quantify any improvements in forecast skill.

The benefits of using LIS and coupling the system to WRF are several-fold. First, the soil initialization fields provided by LIS are at a resolution consistent with that of the regional WRF grid. Second, using LIS allows the user to optimize the surface and soil initialization variables. In addition, users have the ability to run additional land surface models (LSMs) within LIS that are not available in the standard WRF model. Finally, the LIS software provides a framework for incorporating unique NASA-derived land datasets.

Follow-on work includes examining the impacts of the LIS/WRF system on convective initiation (in conjunction with the NSSL/SPoRT collaboration), merging the LIS capability with the MODIS-derived SSTs to improve the overall lower-boundary specification for regional modeling in coastal and mountain regions, and possibly running LIS with additional LSMs.

Results from SPoRT and the WRF-LIS models will be examined to determine how they may be used in a “smart” PRISM for the western United States and SE Europe. If SPoRT is successful, these results will become part of the NWS – EMC prediction system used by weather forecast offices and river forecast centers in the United States, and in the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (EARS). This will enable the EARS to readily integrate the WRF-LSM information into its hydrologic prediction system using techniques developed for the US, FORALPS, AWARE, and EFFS teams may also directly benefit.

Joint Research Center: Natural Hazards Focus

Floods

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) provides policy support on flood issues, especially focused on cross-border river basins. Besides the work of the development of an early warning system (EFAS (the European Flood Alert System), JRC carries out flood mitigation and forecasting case studies in the Elbe and Danube, flash floods and climate change effects and flood risk mapping. LISFLOOD is a grid-based catchment model that has been developed to simulate floods in large European river basins. Because the model is spatially distributed, changes in e.g. land use can be easily included in a LISFLOOD simulation. The typical size of one grid cell is 1 by 1 km, although the model can be run at both much finer and coarser resolutions if needed. LISFLOOD plays a central role within the activities of the NAHA Action, and it is currently being used and tested for flood forecasting (EFAS), scenario modelling, and drought forecasting.

Droughts

Droughts have been recognized as a major natural hazard throughout Europe, and have created large damages to natural vegetation, agriculture, and society. Recently, a study performed commonly by the European Commission and Member States estimated the costs of droughts of the last thirty years in Europe to at least Euro 100 billion (European Commission 2007). The drought of 2003 in Central and Western Europe has been responsible for an estimated economic damage of more than Euro 12 billion alone (Munich Re 2004).

In the forecasting mode the European Flood Alert System produces information on the development of soil moisture anomaly in Europe for up to ten days ahead.

The trend map of soil moisture describes qualitatively the change in soil moisture, currently between today and the seventh day ahead. Orange to red colors indicate drying conditions, while yellow to green colors predict wetter conditions during the next week.

Danubian Project

The Danube Regional Project is here to reinforce regional cooperation of the Danube countries and support development of national policies and legislation and the definition of priority actions for pollution control in order to ensure common approach to protection of international waters, sustainable management of natural resources and biodiversity. This is part of the GEF UNDP-World Bank program for the Global Environment Facility (GEF), established in 1991, helps developing countries fund projects and programs that protect the global environment. GEF grants support projects related to biodiversity, climate change, international waters, land degradation, the ozone layer, and persistent organic pollutants. The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) carries out its mission through its eight theme-based programmes. The REC maintains a thorough list of its current projects online.

The UNDP-GEF Danube Regional Project supports the development of a pilot plan for the Sava River Basin as a model for river basin management planning in line with the EU Water Framework Directive.

We would like you to consider joining our WaterNet and ESF water cycle network and Community of Practice to improve decision-making through applied science. The ESF funded workshops will enable us to communicate more effectively and share our resources efficiently.

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